Alexandersmap

    Author: nhcarmichael

    • Scenario Planning and Backcasting

      “Consider a broad range of possibilities for how the future might unfold to help guide long-term planning and preparation…. The reason why we do reconnaissance is because we are uncertain. We don’t (and likely can’t) know how often things will turn out a certain way with exact precision…. By at least trying to assign probabilities, we will naturally move away from the default of 0% or 100%, away from being sure it will turn out one way and not another.” – Annie Duke, Thinking In Bets

      I was giving this book a few days to digest before coming back to this concept of scenario planning Duke writes about. To me this is the heart of her book (the title does give it away). I’m not a poker player, but I do think in future probabilities in my career, and found this concept helpful in how I’m looking at 2020 and beyond. This goes beyond the usual weighing the probability percentage on an opportunity you’re forecasting to close, and looking at the bigger picture. Will this tactic work on this project? Maybe. Will it hold up as sustainable for the next five years? Harder to determine. How will changes in the economy impact the probability of this outlook? Does living in the same house for the next ten years increase or decrease the likelihood of retiring with a big enough nest egg?

      These are the predictive exercises that clarify a vision for your future. When you combine it with another tool in your belt you can begin to identify actionable steps to get you there. Duke doubles down in covering the concept of backcasting, or working backwards from a positive future:

      “Identify the reasons they got there, what events occurred, what decisions were made, what went their way to get the enterprise to capture that market share. This enables the company to better identify strategies, tactics, and actions that need to be implemented to get to the goal.” – Annie Duke, Thinking In Bets

      The timing of this book was good for me as I map out the year ahead. I’m familiar with both techniques, but I’m not proficient at either. That’s something to work on as I refine my business plan for the year, and equally important for the other objectives in my life. A call to action, if you will, to clarify the vision and the steps needed to reach that outcome.

    • Early Riser Humility

      I brag about myself as an early riser, until I get out into the world and see how many get out there well before me. No, bragging is a fools game, there are plenty who get up earlier than you John. It would be better to state that I try to get an early start to my day. Leave the brag behind.

      I could say the same thing about everything I profess some measure of expertise or superiority about. Plenty do and know much more. I strive to be better at writing, exercise, career, observation, and being a better father, husband, son, brother, mentor and friend. We’re all just figuring it out as we go, picking up life skills along with technical expertise as we march along on our spin around the block of life. Pick up some knowledge, pass it along, help each other along the way, just as they’d help you. Life is humbling, but offers the same lessons for all of us should we wish to learn it.

      I write this between glances at the halo around the moon and the dark purple sky turning to blue and pink, as I walk and type on my phone trying to squeeze two important habits in before the day gets busy amongst the buzz of a world that woke up before me. I’ve managed to avoid tripping over myself thus far; surely a testament to luck versus skill. I wasn’t up first, but hey, I’m out here trying to get a little better. That’s something to build on, isn’t it?

    • Doing Things That Matter

      A little more than a year into my focus on daily habits, the overall the results are encouraging.  James Clear’s Atomic Habits poured gasoline on my focus on doing things that matter every day,  beginning with small things like reading more, writing every day and exercise.  It started with changing the routine when I got up in the morning, where once I’d consume sports media, check email, scroll through social media or play Words With Friends first thing in the morning, I started focusing on the very small habits that might move me forward.  Exercise to get the blood flowing, reading to get the brain matter firing on all cylinders, and writing, to finally do what I’ve been putting off for most of my life.  These aren’t everything that matter in my life, but they were the things I was pushing aside to focus on the other things.

      Priorities remain: family and work obligations come first, but following close behind are the daily habits. In fact, each habit improves the quality of my life, which improves the whole. Pretty simple, really, if you just incorporate the right habits and build them into your routine.  I’ve seen tangible momentum in all three, with the writing on this blog a measure of proof to consistency.  You’ll have to take my word for it on the exercise, and just like the writing daily habits add up over time.  I’ve seen the scale slowly – painfully slowly – showing consistent improvement.  I’ll take that.  I write a lot about writing, and walking.  And then there’s the reading….

      Once again the books are piling up, with four in the cue already I just purchased a Kindle version of Siddhartha by Herman Hesse and revisited Working Days: The Journals of The Grapes of Wrath 1938-1941.  It would be far better to finish one of the original pile before adding more, but so be it.  Books tap you on the shoulder and tell you “It’s my turn” when they feel you’re ready.  This morning Hesse and Steinbeck were both bullying their way into my reading time, and I welcomed them with open arms.  My reading is accelerating, not by speed-reading (which I’ve tried but don’t enjoy), but through focus and occasional multi-tasking (reading on the Kindle app on the iPhone while in line at the store, and more frequently, reading with maximum font on the treadmill while churning out steps).  Consistent, daily reading has been one of the best things I could’ve done for myself.

      So what else matters?  Plenty.  The world is getting exponentially better in many ways, and sliding into the abyss in a few ways.  If you want to improve the world around you it starts with contribution.  The more you do, the more capacity you have to contribute more; more effort, more money, more intellectual horsepower, more empathy, more credibility, and more time.  Ironic, isn’t it?  The more you do the more time you’ll find for the things that matter.  And there’s plenty that matters, if you take the time to think about it.  And that’s where I find myself today, thinking about it and taking a small measure of action, one step at a time.

    • 1917

      I saw the movie 1917 last night, and it’s stayed with me well into the morning. No spoilers here, just appreciation for an exceptional cinema experience. It’s the kind of movie I go to the movies to see; visually stunning, technical filmmaking with powerful acting that weaves between poignant scenes and heart-racing violence. Not the gratuitous, glamorized violence I’ve grown to hate in Hollywood nowadays (see the trailer for The Gentlemen for formula: turn your gun hand to 45 degrees and make a face), but the violent reality of a drawn-out war and the simplicity of two men on a mission in impossible conditions.  It’s the kind of movie you feel privileged to see in a theater, with the seats vibrating with every bang and boom and the full immersion the big screen offers, but without the testosterone-enhanced machismo of the Xbox/CGI movies.

      If this is the new golden age of television with HBO, Netflix and Amazon cranking out brilliant series, then where does that leave the classic craft of intelligent movies?  Blockbusters rule the movies because they make money.  I’ve had this debate with my aspiring screenwriter daughter and yes, I know, superhero films are an art form of their own.  That’s fine if you’re into them (and I know millions are into them).  Star Wars sequels and car chase movies pull in the dollars, but where do those of us that prefer to consume a different kind of entertainment experience go?  I appreciate the occasional visit to a cinema to see a truly great movie, but feel reluctant to part with my money to see CGI with a soundtrack.  So having a film like 1917 is a real treat – it satisfies both audiences.  I hope it’s the highest grossing movie of the year, because more films like it would get produced.

      I write all of this knowing the irony:  I choose to keep the television off most of the time and wouldn’t be heartbroken to cut the cord altogether.  I don’t play video games (computer chess is decidedly not a video game).  I’d rather take a walk in the woods or on the beach than go see an Avengers movie.  No, I’m most certainly not the target audience.  Which should make it all the more impactful when a movie draws me in this way.  If you can get me to go and rave about a movie, you should have a real winner on your hands.  Hero’s journey without the overtly formula plot twists. Dignity, courage and determination in a two hour journey through the horror of WWI: The Great War, the war to end all wars…. yet didn’t. Go see 1917 in a great movie theater, you won’t regret it.

    • Walking in Circles

      Last night I glanced at my watch and recognized that the walk streak was in peril.  I did the math, adding the drive times ahead of me, my son’s college basketball game I planned to watch, and the number of steps I had to do to get there.  I pulled into the parking lot of a small college in Massachusetts, glanced around and thought this was it; streak over.  I had to walk 2 miles to get over the hump, or 4000 steps.  It was a bitingly cold evening and the sun was setting.  What to do?  Walk around the campus as it got dark?  Possible, but this wasn’t a campus to wander around in the dark.  Safe, but completely foreign to me.  I told myself to stop thinking about it and just get out there, left the warmth of the car and walked down the hill looking for a path.  And there was the outdoor track, sprinkled in snow but mostly clear.  One gate was left unlocked, inviting runners and walkers to take a spin but getting no takers until I came along.  Floodlights remained cold and dark, as if to say “Why bother?  What kind of fool would be on this frozen track tonight?”  Hey there dark floodlights, I’m your fool!

      Did I mention the biting cold?  Yes?  Did I mention I was wearing business casual clothing with a light coat on and dress shoes?  No?  Well, that was the athletic attire for the two mile spin around the track in the darkening sky, shoehorned between work and a basketball game.  Take a lap, complain to myself about not bringing running shoes.  Take another lap, feel the cold seep inside the thin coat I wore.  Repeat.  But then something funny happened; I stopped caring about the cold and started checking the progress of my steps.  On a track there’s no mystery: 400 meters any way you look at it, repeat eight times and you get to 2 miles, which is what I needed to get over the top.  So I stopped whining to myself and got it done, and felt better for having done so.  The darkening sky was beautiful with the full “wolf” moon rising to mock my discomfort, and I smiled and mocked myself too.

      The thing about 10,000 steps is that it isn’t all that much in the big scheme of things.  I recognize it’s the bare minimum and more must be done to be truly fit.  But it’s a promise I made to myself to keep the streak alive for as long as possible, and I’m tired of breaking promises to myself.  So the track workout checked the box for another day – 33 and counting – and I got into the warmth of the gym and watched real athletes compete at a high level.  I used to be on of them, rowing instead of basketball, but an extremely fit, disciplined college athlete.  Then a few decades slip by, work, kids, commitments…  and habits slide with promises unkept, but you forgive yourself and move on.  If my hour on the track in dress shoes told me anything, it’s that I’m less tolerant of excuses I make to myself.  10,000 steps is one small habit on a stack of small habits I’ve been tracking.  Instead of thinking about resolutions and big  transformation, I’m thinking small daily habits and keeping the streak alive another day.  It seems to be getting me where I’d like to go, even if it seems like I’m walking in circles.

    • Coffeehouse Self

      The commute started early this morning, with an early meeting conspiring with noise in my head about getting on the other side of the rush hour traffic that would surely build with every minute. Nothing stresses my commuter self more than being late for an appointment with miles of traffic ahead of me. I don’t like commuter self all that much, and avoid his company when I can.

      Traffic going into Boston is a wonder, but not wonderful; starting much earlier than you’d think possible, lingers past when you’d expect it to end, then reverses direction almost immediately to wreak havoc on your soul when you head home. You either skate your lane, distract yourself with music and podcasts or you let it get to you. I’ve gotten better at letting it go, but it’s a weakness in my character and I feel commuter self creep back into the car more than I’d like. So I play the active avoidance game when I can, and podcast the heck out of the worst of it. I once turned down a great job with a big promotion and raise because I didn’t want to crush my soul with the two hour 40 mile commute. I don’t regret the decision.

      This morning I time-travelled to Boston, found a café and sit writing this blog while others are stop-and-going on the highways I just left. Coffeehouse music is playing, counteracting the effect of the caffeine and the adrenaline of hundreds of cars and trucks I spent the last hour with. My coffee sits steaming on a distressed wood table and The Lumineers and Jason Mraz are playing just loud enough that I can barely hear the diesel engines and honking horns out there. The regulars talk amongst themselves but the place is still full of empty. There was no logical reason to leave as early as I did, with 90 minutes of time to spare. But I like the company of coffeehouse self more than commuter self, and that was enough for me.

    • Snow Globe Perceptions

      Driving in heavy snow yesterday with the headlights illuminating every snowflake, it looked like the scene in Star Wars when they shift to warp speed with the stars streaking by. My daughter pointed this out, and then made the observation that all those snowflakes weren’t streaking towards us, we were streaking towards them. And I thought to myself first, you’ve raised a very intelligent and perceptive daughter. And then I thought about perceptions, and what else are we streaking towards that we think is coming at us?

      The news comes to mind. We tend to validate our beliefs by seeking out news that is consistent with our worldview. Watch CNN or Fox and it either feeds your beliefs or enrages you, depending on your regular diet of spun information. Who you follow on Twitter is another example, with tweets of varying substance flying at you like those snowflakes seemed to. Think you’re falling behind others? That’s a perception too, validated by Facebook and Instagram posts, or counting WordPress likes.

      So how do you change your perception? Easy; slow down. When you stop driving highway speeds those snowflakes just drift slowly to the ground. When you unfollow people on Twitter the world seems more sane. When you stop tracking who’s vacationing where or how many followers someone has and change your perspective to what you’re grateful for and what you’re contributing to the world you suddenly exit the storm in your mind and things become clear. Stop shaking the snow globe and use that energy to create desired outcomes. Simple…. right?

    • The Bed and the Beasts

      I woke in the darkness, groggy but otherwise aware.  I self-assessed the situation.  My knees were pointed out into the abyss, cool in the early morning air.  My cold shoulder was exposed in the breeze, throbbing and reminding me of the tendinitis suffered from burpees gone bad.  I was contorted into an odd shape, but otherwise intact.  I felt a warm body pressed against my lower back and another pressed against my calf.  Alert now and  bearings re-set, I recognized the larger body pressed against my back as the big cat, the pressure on the calf was coming from the smaller cat.  I knew at once that they’d tried again to plunge me into the abyss in the night.  Once again the plot was foiled when they ran out of time.

      Those movies where the little child hides under the covers as the monster comes out of the closet?  That scene was clearly written by someone with pets, for the rapidly disappearing covers were all that saved me from these ungrateful beasts who slowly, deliberately pushed me closer and closer to the edge; to the abyss.  I know this to be true, for each night I go to bed with plenty of room, cozy under the covers.  Reading quickly devolves to sleep, and I drift off to pleasant dreams, alone in the bed.  Sometime later in the night, maybe five minutes, maybe four hours – I really don’t know, my bride slips into bed and attempts to sleep her restless sleep.  Eventually the beasts creep onto the bed and begin their mischief, working in unison to pull the covers away from me.  The pushing starts soon after.  You’ve heard of the three dog night?  I have the two cat night.  They parachute in like ninjas in the dark, working into the small space between my bride and me.  The dynamics of “cozy” change soon after to “cramped”, but I stubbornly sleep through it, waking to the full reality of the conspiracy in the early morning hours.

      As a road warrior, I know the feel of a strange hotel bed in some random city.  I used to wake often in the unfamiliar surroundings, trying to get my bearings when everything felt different.  But now I find myself sleeping blissfully, waking refreshed in roughly the place I began my sleep in, without a fan blowing on me and nowhere near the edge.  It seems that a night of sleep without nocturnal beasts playing dangerous games is possible.  Just not in the comfort of my own bed.  Here, in winter, the ninja games become a nightly reality.  And when I finally get up, they move right into the warmth I leave behind.  Such is the world I’ve built around me…  Should’ve gone with the King-sized bed.

    • Better Decisions

      “In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.” – Annie Duke, Thinking In Bets

      As we enter the first full work week of the New Year, I’m focused on this concept of Second Order Thinking and working to apply it better in my life.  In short, asking what will be the consequences of doing this versus that in the first order, the second order and the third order?  If I eat this donut because it looks delicious (first order), then I’ll add more empty calories and gain weight (second order), which will make me more stressed out in the future when my pants are getting too snug (third order).  Second and third order thinking is a way of fast-forwarding into the future as you decide on whether or not to do something in the present.  It gets you out of the self-centered immediate gratification of now and looking at the ultimate satisfaction of then.  Ray Dalio describes it as the lower-level you winning out over the higher-level you.  I haven’t been consistent with this in my lifetime, particularly when it comes to snacking.  I’d say it’s time to look up from the proverbial candy dish and think beyond the moment.

      “Decide what to be and go be it.” – The Avett Brothers, Head Full of Doubt/Road Full of Promise

      I didn’t believe I’d like the book Thinking In Bets.  I’m not a poker player and have no desire to immerse myself in the world of poker. They wear sunglasses indoors and pull their hats down low to cover expressions on their faces.  I mean, who wants to hang out with people doing that?  But this isn’t a book about poker, it’s a book about decision-making.  And making better decisions is something I’ve been working on in myself for some time.  It started with this idea of Second Order Thinking, where you weigh the consequences of your decision now and into the future.  I’ve made plenty of decisions in my lifetime that made sense in the immediacy of the moment that turned out to be bad decisions down the road.  And a few that I thought weren’t great early on that turned out to be brilliant (and lucky) decisions with hindsight.

      We’re the average of the five people we hang around with the most, as Jim Rohn would put it.  Applied to what I’m reading, I’m currently hanging around with stoics, poets and experts in creating and sustaining better habits.  And now I’ve invited decision-making experts to the party.  I’m okay with that mix, and will enhance it over time.  But reading about something isn’t doing something.  That’s a trap that you realize as you read book after book without applying the knowledge you pick up from all that reading.  No, the rubber meets the road when you take action.  Applied knowledge, repeated daily, leads to exponential improvement over time.  I’ve seen that working in all things over the course of my life.  The focus now is to improve the decision-making process so I spend that time on better, more productive activity.  Dance a bit more in the higher-level self.  Now is as good a time as any to get to it.

    • Crunchy Meditation

      There’s nothing like a long walk to sort things out and help you forget about the madness in the world.  Last week New Hampshire received a few inches of heavy, wet snow. Once walked upon, slushy snow becomes a clutter of footprints.  Let it freeze and that snow becomes a crunchy, treacherous mine field.  And such was the state of the Windham Rail Trail on my Sunday walk.  Micro spikes over hiking boots answered most of the challenge, and a little care on where you stepped solved the rest.  A long walk alone became crunchy meditation, with a good workout as a bonus.

      About three miles into the walk I came across a column of deer tracks crossing perpendicular to the rail trail.  Nothing surprising in that; this is deer country here in Southern New Hampshire after all.  But I found the tracks fascinating anyway.  The deer walked in a line like Native American warriors or Roger’s Rangers would have done when this area was contested frontier.  In the case of warriors and rangers it masks the numbers from the adversary.  I wondered if the deer instinctively mask their numbers or just follow the leader to minimize the calorie burn of moving through snow.  The latter makes sense, doesn’t it? In winter where calories equal survival efficiency in movement means everything.

      For me the goal was just the opposite of the deer: burn as many calories as possible in two hours of walking and be outdoors as an active participant in winter. Mix in a visually interesting trek on rough terrain and this afternoon’s 10,000 (+!) steps scored a high bliss rating. And who doesn’t need more bliss in the short, dark days of January?