Alexandersmap

    Tag: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    • Trust, But Verify

      “Exercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals, and everywhere life is full of heroism.” — Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

      It would do us all good to live by the adage, trust, but verify. The world is full of wonderful people who live beautiful lives filled with generosity and goodwill towards others. The world is also filled with charlatans and evil characters who think only of themselves at the expense of all that is good in this world.

      Knowing that both are true, we may choose to move through the world with cautious optimism armored in strength, resolve and a sharp eye. Put another way, it’s okay to walk into the theater to enjoy the show, but always know where the closest exits are and never turn your back on the bad actor holding a grudge.

      Trust, but verify apparently has its roots in an old Russian proverb, which tells you a thing or two about the Russians. They aren’t all bad, but they also won’t allow anyone to stab them in the back. We should naturally view them with the same level of caution. The Ukrainians have a proverb that goes, “the malicious cow disturbs the entire herd.” And here we are.

      The thing is, we must make our way through this world prepared to meet both the best and worst of us, because we have and will again. To live heroically, we must be both ambassadors and a trusted friend to others while also working diligently to develop resilience and Taleb’s concept of antifragility that we may fend off the malicious intent of humanity’s worst actors. To reach our full potential we must climb and hold the high ground, prepared to defend it when the barbarians make their charge.

    • Reasonable Times

      “No man can predict the time when others will choose to return to reason.” — Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

      We find ourselves in unreasonable times. We know this because reason and logic are shouted down and marginalized by lusty zealots with a thirst for power, and their behavior is celebrated by their followers and enablers. When enough reasonable, logical people are shouted down, the rest learn to keep their mouths shut. That’s no way to climb the mountain of progress, it’s a spiral into chaos.

      Whether the world shifts towards order or towards chaos is largely out of our control, all we can control is how we react to the forces around us. We may choose to be reasonable (to thoughtfully use reason) ourselves. To seek first to understand and then to act in a way consistent with our climb to personal excellence (arete). There’s nothing excellent in shouting down someone we disagree with, nor is there excellence in bowing to the will of a bully or in putting our head in the sand and wishing it would all go away.

      It’s said that the universe favors chaos over order. That doesn’t mean that we should accept riots in the streets, but rather, that change is inevitable. Our own stability lies in toeing the line between chaos and order and learning how to improve our balance. This too shall pass—it always does eventually. If we put ourselves in a position to meet change prepared, antifragile and resilient, we may actually thrive on the changes. So maybe these times seem unreasonable, and really, who am I to argue? But we have agency, we have reason, and we may endeavor to hold the line that favors order in our own lives.

    • A Day to Remember

      “I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand.” ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder

      Yesterday was surely a day to remember. Yes, there was that assassination attempt on a Presidential candidate (horrific, not shocking given the divisive climate), but honestly I didn’t even know about that until hours later. World-changing events happen whether we’re watching it unfold or not. The question is, what are we doing to create a positive ripple in our own pond? For me I’ll remember the day we brought our whole family together in one place after too long apart for a day of celebration.

      I’ll always remember January 6th, October 7th and September 11th for the events that unfolded on those days, just as we come to associate place names with other world-changing events: Tiananmen Square, the Pulse Nightclub, Pearl Harbor and on and on. Life on this pale blue planet is complex and often tragic (none of us gets out alive, after all), but we may control how we react to it, and mitigate the impact of some world events with our lifestyle choices. To be more antifragile should be a goal for each of us.

      The seismic political, social and environmental events unfolding in our world will always be there and can’t be ignored, but we may choose to stay far away the epicenter and focus instead on building something beautiful. We may be insular without being ignorant. The ripples will reach us as they always do in such events, but when we put ourselves to higher ground we aren’t completely washed over when black swan events happen.

      So what will we remember most today? It ought to be something deeply meaningful that we may influence in our own lives, not something out of our control. Make it a day to remember for all the right reasons. Our own positive ripple may counter the negative splash someone else is making.

    • The Failover Game

      “Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire. Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be the fire and wish for the wind.”
      ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder

      When the world is runnin’ down
      You make the best of what’s still around
      — The Police, When The World Is Running Down

      I’m not a stockbroker or day trader betting against the market, but I imagine a few of them have that Taleb quote taped to their computer monitors. No, I’m simply a fan of being more antifragile in a world that is a bit chaotic at times. As this is published, I’ve been forced off the grid. December storms rolled up the East Coast of the United States and eventually arrived in New Hampshire, knocking out power in some communities, including the one I call home. Lucky me.

      A bit of resiliency goes a long way when you own a home, and having a generator or battery backup is essential to maintaining some measure of normalcy when things go dark. Solar panels can charge battery banks that in turn offer clean backup power when the power grid fails you. Whole house and portable generators offer a reliable, if louder, alternative. Judging by the neighborhood when the power goes out, the clear winner is the portable generator. Most purchased in desperation during some previous storm outage. So it goes with such things—we don’t think about resiliency and failover options until we’re faced with an urgent need for it.

      Some people don’t have that luxury. Boaters need a backup should the engine fail. Even sailors need power for communication and to keep the perishables from perishing (food and people alike). Failover engines, generators and batteries offer quiet insurance for the moment things go awry. My friends over on Fayaway have several blog posts describing their redundant systems. On a sailboat the engine itself is redundant, as they’d clearly prefer to be sailing. Steering systems, communication systems, propulsion systems and in the absolute worst case, staying afloat systems are just some of their redundant systems.

      A strong failover game can save the day on a boat, in a remote cabin, on a hike to potentially lethal places, in the automobile we commute to work in, and yes, on a quiet cul du sac in New Hampshire. We ought to apply this to our finances, our support network and anything else that would be really unpleasant or catastrophic should it fail. Every life should have a primary plan with at least one contingency plan, for we are playing chess in this lifetime, not checkers.

      Asking ourselves, “What is the worst that would happen if X happened?” leads to answers on how to mitigate the impact of that worst case scenario. We all learned a bit about resiliency during the pandemic, didn’t we? The world is a bit off-kilter nowadays, don’t you think? Weather, wars, political upheaval, active shooters and the occasional shark attack. When the world is runnin’ down, you make the best of what’s still around.

      We must continuously build more resiliency into our life. A life jacket is not worn as a fashion statement, and a backup plan is never a waste of our time, even if never used. So be prepared, as any Boy Scout would insist. Be the fire that wishes for the wind.

    • Shards of Light

      “We’re only here for a minute. We’re here for a little window. And to use that time to catch and share shards of light and laughter and grace seems to me the great story.” – Brian Doyle, from the Forward of One Long River Of Song

      The news about the Sycamore tree at Hadrian’s Wall reached New Hampshire perhaps around the same time that it reached everywhere else in the world. That one person can bring light or darkness to an inordinate amount of people is secretly understood by most of us, but we all hope that people will choose light. Surely, most do, or our species would never evolve and grow. And yet we must be prepared for the darkness.

      The obvious thing about my writing is that I remain almost singularly focused on the positive. This is a reminder to myself and anyone who might stumble upon this blog that there is grace and beauty in this world, in spades, and it’s often the common ground that illuminates all of us. Sometimes it’s a simple thing, like a dahlia holding on to summer after the rest of the garden fades away. In a way that tree along Hadrian’s Wall was like that dahlia, holding on long after the rest of the forest was swept away. Do we focus on the beauty in that realization or the darkness of how it came to be?

      Like a muscle broken down through physical stress, darkness brings with it the opportunity for growth and improvement. Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this antifragility, in which we grow stronger collectively in the face of the stressors that life throws our way. But only if we learn and grow together. Alternatively, we might shrink back within ourselves and atrophy. We must choose growth, and go to the light.

      Forget Instagram-worthy singularity. I’d plant a thousand trees where one stood at Hadrian’s Wall. Return the forest to the land. Bring beauty back a thousandfold to honor the last holdout. That would be a great ending to a dark story.

    • The Lindy Effect

      A few years ago Nassim Nicholas Taleb described a phenomenon known as the Lindy Effect in his book Antifragile. Soon after you started hearing about it in other work, referenced in blog posts, magazine articles and even its own Wikipedia page. I tend to shy away from uber-trendy topics, but I’ve thought a lot about this Lindy Effect since reading about it in Taleb’s book.

      “I follow the Lindy effect as a guide in selecting what to read: books that have been around for ten years will be around for ten more; books that have been around for two millennia should be around for quite a bit of time, and so forth.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile

      Lindy’s was a famous deli in New York where comedians and actors would gather and discuss such things as the durability of a Broadway show. The observation is that if something survives for a period of time longer than the norm, it implies that it will survive at least that long into the future. The Lindy Effect only applies to non-perishable items, so you and I and that orange on the counter don’t count. But that picture you take or that book you write or the product you release to the market do count. The implication is that you might build something that outlasts you by a long stretch.

      Henry David Thoreau died just eight years after publishing Walden, but the book lives on to this day. When it was originally published it was hardly noticed. Yet today it’s been read by millions. When Ansel Adams took the photograph “Monolith, the Face of Half Dome” in 1927 he was creating something that still captures the imagination of people around the world almost 100 years later. It was the picture that built his legacy and helped preserve Yosemite.

      Ernest Hemingway published his first classic, The Sun Also Rises, in October of 1926, six months before Adams took that photograph. Hemingway had a burning desire to be a great writer, and to publish great and lasting work. Many people point to the last lines of the novel for the way it captures the relationship between the two central characters. You might also see the final line as a hopeful wish from Hemingway that this book might fly:

      “Oh Jake,” Brett said, “We could have had such a damned good time together.”
      Ahead was a mounted policeman in khaki directing traffic. He raised his baton. The car slowed suddenly, pressing Brett against me.
      Yes,” I said. “Isn’t it pretty to think so?”
      – Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

      I’ve noticed a small trend in this blog where 6-10 specific blog posts seem to get views all the time, while the other 1000+ have their moment in the spotlight and fade away over time. Millions of books and paintings and pictures similarly fade away over time, but some stand up forever as legendary. Making art may have a formula, but creating its stickiness remains a mystery to most of us.

      Ironically, Lindy’s, the delicatessen that gave birth to the concept of building something that might last forever, closed forever in 2017. For businesses are perishable too. Yet its name lives on. Maybe, like Thoreau or Adams or Hemingway, that is as it should be.

    • Sana: A Goal of Health and Strength

      “Mens sana in corpore sano” – The Latin phrase for “a strong mind in a strong body”, has been in my thoughts lately. Let’s face it, we aren’t getting any younger, and we’ve only got this one body, and this one mind, for this one life. If we don’t take care of them eventually each breaks down. My favorite Navy pilot used to say that he saw the future, and he didn’t like it. Well, I’ve seen it too, and I don’t like what it might be without focused, consistent effort. We can’t stop the inevitable, but dammit we can delay it a bit.

      The care of Mens, or “the mind”, is demonstrated in a lifetime of learning. Stretching your mind in new directions with unique experiences, travel and challenging reading that informs, proper nutrition, hydration, and above all, sleep. A fatigued, dehydrated mind is a sad spectacle indeed. Keeping our minds sharp should be a primary goal, acted upon daily. It offers the side benefit of richer conversations with a broader circle, a richer and fuller life, and doing well watching Jeopardy!

      Corpore sano, “a healthy body”, shouldn’t be neglected in pursuit of a career, a vibrant mind, or because we’re busy with other things. The clear answer is that a healthy body is the foundation for all that we do in our lives. And as the Latin phrase infers, there’s an obvious connection between the health of the body and the health of the mind. Fitness and consistent exercise should be a primary focus in our daily lives, and should be scheduled and selfishly guarded against all who might infringe on our pursuit of a healthy body.

      Think about the last time you had the flu, your body shut down to fight it. You had chills and aches. All you wanted to do was find some measure of comfort in your bed and try to sleep it off. Or think about the morning after some particularly hearty celebration, with a strong hangover and head pounding. Walking in a fog and feeling like death. We’ve all experienced the former, and most of us have experienced the latter. That’s no way to live, friends. But these moments inform, should we take notice.

      So how about flipping that around to feeling our best most of our lives? Extending our vibrant lives to fill our days, and to extend our functional lifetimes? What is functional anyway? I’m looking for a bounce in my step and sharpness in my wit well into my senior years, and that starts with a strong foundation now. Why can’t we be hiking up mountains in our 90’s? Taking long, unassisted walks along cobblestone streets in faraway, ancient cities? Why can’t we be tackling new languages and reading Yuval Noah Harari and Nassim Nicholas Taleb books as we round 100? And shouldn’t we be doing that now as stepping stones for deeper thinking then?

      Speaking of Taleb, the goal is resiliency. To become as antifragile as we possibly can so we can give our bodies and minds a fighting chance in this crazy world. To bend but not break when the going gets rough, as it surely is now for so many people.

      “If something is fragile, its risk of breaking makes anything you do to improve it or make it ‘efficient’ inconsequential unless you first reduce that risk of breaking.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile

      The moments that test us, the toughest workouts and the most challenging concepts we wrestle with in our minds, these make us stronger, more resilient, and more vibrant. So waking up to this gift of another day, think Mens sana in corpore sano. What will we do to strengthen our minds and bodies today? Act now, without hesitation. A vibrant and fulfilling life begins with this. Our health and vigor define everything that we do in this, our one wild and precious life.