Alexandersmap

    Category: Career

    • Scenario Planning and Backcasting

      “Consider a broad range of possibilities for how the future might unfold to help guide long-term planning and preparation…. The reason why we do reconnaissance is because we are uncertain. We don’t (and likely can’t) know how often things will turn out a certain way with exact precision…. By at least trying to assign probabilities, we will naturally move away from the default of 0% or 100%, away from being sure it will turn out one way and not another.” – Annie Duke, Thinking In Bets

      I was giving this book a few days to digest before coming back to this concept of scenario planning Duke writes about. To me this is the heart of her book (the title does give it away). I’m not a poker player, but I do think in future probabilities in my career, and found this concept helpful in how I’m looking at 2020 and beyond. This goes beyond the usual weighing the probability percentage on an opportunity you’re forecasting to close, and looking at the bigger picture. Will this tactic work on this project? Maybe. Will it hold up as sustainable for the next five years? Harder to determine. How will changes in the economy impact the probability of this outlook? Does living in the same house for the next ten years increase or decrease the likelihood of retiring with a big enough nest egg?

      These are the predictive exercises that clarify a vision for your future. When you combine it with another tool in your belt you can begin to identify actionable steps to get you there. Duke doubles down in covering the concept of backcasting, or working backwards from a positive future:

      “Identify the reasons they got there, what events occurred, what decisions were made, what went their way to get the enterprise to capture that market share. This enables the company to better identify strategies, tactics, and actions that need to be implemented to get to the goal.” – Annie Duke, Thinking In Bets

      The timing of this book was good for me as I map out the year ahead. I’m familiar with both techniques, but I’m not proficient at either. That’s something to work on as I refine my business plan for the year, and equally important for the other objectives in my life. A call to action, if you will, to clarify the vision and the steps needed to reach that outcome.

    • Better Decisions

      “In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.” – Annie Duke, Thinking In Bets

      As we enter the first full work week of the New Year, I’m focused on this concept of Second Order Thinking and working to apply it better in my life.  In short, asking what will be the consequences of doing this versus that in the first order, the second order and the third order?  If I eat this donut because it looks delicious (first order), then I’ll add more empty calories and gain weight (second order), which will make me more stressed out in the future when my pants are getting too snug (third order).  Second and third order thinking is a way of fast-forwarding into the future as you decide on whether or not to do something in the present.  It gets you out of the self-centered immediate gratification of now and looking at the ultimate satisfaction of then.  Ray Dalio describes it as the lower-level you winning out over the higher-level you.  I haven’t been consistent with this in my lifetime, particularly when it comes to snacking.  I’d say it’s time to look up from the proverbial candy dish and think beyond the moment.

      “Decide what to be and go be it.” – The Avett Brothers, Head Full of Doubt/Road Full of Promise

      I didn’t believe I’d like the book Thinking In Bets.  I’m not a poker player and have no desire to immerse myself in the world of poker. They wear sunglasses indoors and pull their hats down low to cover expressions on their faces.  I mean, who wants to hang out with people doing that?  But this isn’t a book about poker, it’s a book about decision-making.  And making better decisions is something I’ve been working on in myself for some time.  It started with this idea of Second Order Thinking, where you weigh the consequences of your decision now and into the future.  I’ve made plenty of decisions in my lifetime that made sense in the immediacy of the moment that turned out to be bad decisions down the road.  And a few that I thought weren’t great early on that turned out to be brilliant (and lucky) decisions with hindsight.

      We’re the average of the five people we hang around with the most, as Jim Rohn would put it.  Applied to what I’m reading, I’m currently hanging around with stoics, poets and experts in creating and sustaining better habits.  And now I’ve invited decision-making experts to the party.  I’m okay with that mix, and will enhance it over time.  But reading about something isn’t doing something.  That’s a trap that you realize as you read book after book without applying the knowledge you pick up from all that reading.  No, the rubber meets the road when you take action.  Applied knowledge, repeated daily, leads to exponential improvement over time.  I’ve seen that working in all things over the course of my life.  The focus now is to improve the decision-making process so I spend that time on better, more productive activity.  Dance a bit more in the higher-level self.  Now is as good a time as any to get to it.

    • Playing Parts

      “All the world’s a stage,
      And all the men and women merely players;
      They have their exits and their entrances;
      And one man in his time plays many parts”
      – William Shakespeare, from As You Like It

      If New Year’s Day is the day of hope and dreams and resolutions for the future, then January 2nd is the day when the rubber hits the road.  It’s the day after that first day at the gym, that first day of not eating carbs or that first day of writing in earnest.  On the journey of becoming more, it’s when you feel the pull of gravity from the pile of distractions.  And sure enough here I am on the day after the New Day, working through my morning routine, slightly modified for location, with a look at the clock and the tasks ahead.  The sky is dark and the glow from the laptop shines a spotlight on the actor, still unsure of his lines but chipping away at it nonetheless.

      This morning I am still on Cape Cod, with the sky brightening and the jetty calling.  The writing incomplete, the day job tapping me on the shoulder saying “get going” but that jetty calling, so I bundled up and went out anyway, task list be damned.  It was one of those mornings where the cold breeze cuts deep through your layers, mocking your attempts to control Mother Nature.  I walked all the way out and watched the clouds turn from gray to blue to pink.  The pink is viral, starting in the east and spreading across the sky, deepening to a rose as it moves, and then almost as quickly it begins to fade as the light grows.  Such are the sunrises.  You have to embrace the moment at hand before it all fades away to the waking world.

      There’s always something to distract you here.  But I’m grateful that this visit has shaken me loose from the cobwebs of routine.  Really, that’s why I come here.  Today is a back-to-work day, and I confess I’ve already checked the numbers, scanned the email and taken note of people to call.  The day job waits impatiently for the actor to return to the stage to read his lines.  As with all of us, I’m one man in his time playing many parts, and it’s time to turn into that other character for the next act.  Now what was that first line again?

    • Chess Boards and Calendars

      The chess board and the calendar are one and the same.  

      For each demands strategy and each is a game,

      of reaction and discipline and boldness in kind.

      I marvel at masters, 

      while struggling to keep more than two moves in mind

      I marvel at poets as well, for my words betray me as a clydesdale and my words as poetry on the fly.  So be it – not every dance is a tango.  Back to the topic at hand, the similarities between the chess board and the calendar.  I win my share of chess matches, but I find my vision of the board betrays me at times.  I focus so much on my own moves that I don’t always see the threat lurking on the other side.  But I know sometimes I can overcome a threat, while strategically making a noble sacrifice, with action towards my objective.  Chess and the calendar do demand reaction and discipline and boldness, and I try to play both with equal grace, but still struggle with each.  We never master the game of chess, just as we never master the calendar.

      I look at the moves I’ve made with time over the last twelve months, and know that I’ve made some moves I regret, but also many that I’m quite pleased with.  2019 is a year of brilliant highlights mixed with some real duds, which makes it like just about every year I’ve been on the planet.  We build the calendar and hope for the best.  I can stand back and see myself in the beginning of a pivot, but the direction I’m pivoting isn’t entirely clear yet.  So I press on, filling the calendar with necessary meetings and positive habits that offer incremental growth.  A few have paid off, a few have been complete failures, and a few are just in the embryonic stage and need a bit of nurturing to grow.  Such is life; we never look like what we once were when we grow.

      Playing chess last night against the computer instead of a human, I felt bored and was going through the motions.  Passing the time.  That’s a great time to walk away from something when that something doesn’t move you towards a place you need to be, and I finished the game and turned off the computer.  Life is too short to play boring games, and chess had lost its luster for me for the moment.  In some ways the calendar has too, and it’s a wake-up call to see where the calendar is taking me and start filling it with more things that get me where I’m going.  Wherever that may be. Boldness has genius, power, and magic in it, as the saying goes.  As in chess, stop being distracted by reactionary moves and be more bold.  Better still, weave a little more magic into the calendar.  Ready?

       

    • Telling Stories

      “No story lives unless someone wants to listen.” – J.K. Rowling

      There are two ways to look at this Rowling quote. There’s the story we try to sell to the audience – read my blog or my book, buy my product or service, hire me for the job, let’s do lunch… whatever. The story we tell others to persuade them to invest time, attention or money into what we’re offering. But there’s also the story we tell ourselves, “I am a writer”, “I am here to help others”, “I am a rainmaker”, that ultimately has to come first. If you don’t believe your own story how can you expect others to buy into it?

      I was thinking about a George Mack Twitter thread on high agency that’s stuck with me for since I read it a year ago. Here are the key points from that thread:

      “High Agency is a sense that the story given to you by other people about what you can/cannot do is just that – a story.
      And that you have control over the story.
      High Agency person looks to bend reality to their will.
      They either find a way, or they make a way.

      Low agency person accepts the story that is given to them.
      They never question it.
      They are passive.
      They outsource all of their decision making to other people.

      If in doubt, ask yourself, what would Wetzler do?
      1. Question everything
      2. Bend reality
      3. Never outsource your decision making”

      (Alfred Wetzler was a prisoner who escaped Auschwitz and helped bring awareness to what was happening there).

      Pushing myself to become more high agency, less low agency has been a mission ever since.  What story am I telling myself?  That I’m someone that gets things done, or someone who falls in line and does what is expected of me?  In general I’m proactive in reaching out to others, tackling projects (high agency) but tend to stall when I hit roadblocks (low agency).  In general I follow the rules of the game (low agency), but what if the rules aren’t really there in the first place?  Everything in social life is a construct, so why not construct my own life?  That’s high agency, and a better story than passively going through life as a cog in someone else’s story line.

      And so I’m pushing myself more in my career (which requires high agency thinking), and I’m writing more out of my comfort zone, and questioning other things in my life that I might have let slide before.  This bending reality to my will thing seems arrogant on the surface, but that’s passive thinking, isn’t it?  I have plenty of examples of people in my life bending reality to their will who I wouldn’t call arrogant, but instead adventurous and bold.  And who doesn’t want their main character to be adventurous and bold?

      The thing about high agency living is that it builds on itself.  You start with one bold question, push back a little and go in a different direction and it changes you.  Do it again and you change a little more.  Pretty soon you have momentum on your side and step-by-step eventually you’re living audaciously.  And that’s a story I’d like to see more of.

       

    • Monday, Take Two

      The thing about Mondays is they mean different things to you based on your expectations for the week. Are you attacking an exciting project or slogging through a job you don’t like? Are you eagerly anticipating that could seal your rise in your career or dreading the thought of work that doesn’t inspire you? Are you sipping coffee in a tropical cafe or in a line of cars at a coffee chain drive-thru waiting to get some coffee and get on with the commute already? Reaction to Monday’s are thus highly subjective. But it’s all a time construct and life choices anyway, at least in America.
      Back to Hafiz, who couldn’t have imagined lines in drive-thru coffee places or tapping away on a computer to complete a blog post before you get on with your newborn work week. But he knew about human nature and living in this world. Of getting in your own way. He knew we are here to dance while the music plays. Here, using poetic magic, he reminds me to stop thinking small (with a nod to Tim Ferriss for highlighting this poem):


      “You are the Sun in drag.
      You are God hiding from yourself.
      Remove all the “mine”—that is the veil.
      Why ever worry about
      Anything?
      Listen to what your friend Hafiz
      Knows for certain:
      The appearance of this world
      Is a Magi’s brilliant trick, though its affairs are
      Nothing into nothing.
      You are a divine elephant with amnesia
      Trying to live in an ant
      Hole.
      Sweetheart, O sweetheart
      You are God in
      Drag!”

      The poem is called The Sun In Drag… and it had me thinking about ant holes and elephants this weekend. So who cares if it’s a Monday? Get out of the ant hole already! Do you hear the music playing? Dance!

    • Force of Fortune

      “The true joy in life is to be a force of fortune instead of a feverish, selfish little clod of ailments and grievances complaining that the world will not devote itself to making you happy.” – George Bernard Shaw

      I’ve used this quote to challenge myself a few times over the years. Shaw didn’t mince words here, he’s telling all of us to step up and take control of our lives instead of whining about how unfair the world is. Ultimately the world doesn’t owe us anything and the more time you spend blaming it the less time you have to do what must be done.

      Here we are on the evening of December 8th with 22 days and a few hours left in 2019. By all accounts a great year, and yet so much left to do. Goals unmet, weight not lost, business still parked on the table instead of in the books, pages unwritten, and so on. This is a good time to pull Shaw’s quote out of storage and take the kick in the backside he offers. Do what you need to do and don’t complain about the stacked deck, for others have it worse and do more. Don’t be a selfish little clod, get to work and be grateful for the opportunity. Be a force of fortune already.

    • Getting There

      “What got you here won’t get you there.” – Marshall Goldsmith

      Indeed.  But knowing where there is is an essential part of making the shift in the what.  December is a great time to think about then and there stuff, but really every morning you should reflect a bit on where you’ve been and where you’re going.  What went well, what went badly, what can change, what must change…  and how do we begin right now, today?

      Personally, I function better with Bullet Journal type lists.  Check things off, move things forward that you didn’t do, etc.  Lists of tasks are easy.  Lists of life goals are a little harder.  The Warren Buffett/Mike Flint 25/5 exercise is harder still, but time marches on and if you don’t reflect on where you’re going you’re going to end up somewhere else with the things you wanted to do undone.  I did this 25/5 exercise a year ago, and I’m going to do it again this week.  Essentially, you write down 25 things you want to accomplish – start a business, write a book, run a marathon…. whatever.  You then circle the 5 most important goals and avoid the other 20 at all costs until you’ve accomplished the circled 5.  It forces you to focus on what your real priorities are, and what the real distractions are to getting there.  It’s challenging because we all want to be good at everything, but in being generalists we fail to achieve our biggest goals.  Hell yes or no.  Essentialism…  The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People story of putting the big rocks in the jar before filling the rest with pebbles, then sand and then water…  Whatever you want to call it it’s the act of saying no to many things to enable you to achieve the few big things.  And the few big things are the “there“.

       

       

    • Too Much Vienna, Not Enough Do

      “Where’s the fire, what’s the hurry about?
      You better cool it off before you burn it out
      You got so much to do and only
      So many hours in a day 
      But you know that when the truth is told
      That you can get what you want or you get old
      You’re gonna kick off before you even
      Get halfway through
      When will you realize, Vienna waits for you” – Billy Joel, Vienna

      I figured this one out some time ago, but lately I feel the pendulum swung a bit too far to Vienna, a little too far away from the do.  Vacation and holidays will do that to you.  So with a month left in 2019, it’s time to revisit the habits I’ve set for myself, revise and replace a few where needed.  Writing is consistent, exercise is not.  Too bad, I had a great run with burpees and rowing, but one injury blew up the streak, and before you know it a month went by.  But there’s plenty of time to reset, with exercise that doesn’t injure me this time.

      The system?  Make a list, prioritize, schedule, measure results, review and course correct.  Nothing mysterious in any of that, I’ve just gotten lazy about using the Bullet Journal this fall, which has a trickle down effect as I stop structuring my day and wing it, and things slip through the cracks.  Too much Vienna, not enough do.  Great time to course correct.  Set the alarm early, work out and tackle the list.  It’s grown too long lately.  So Vienna… will have to wait.

    • Spending Time

      Saturday I left the house mid-morning to catch our son’s college basketball game with a quick dinner afterwards, dropped the in-laws off and got home eight hours after I left. We casually spend time like this without a thought, for it’s the essence of life. Time spent on a worthwhile investment. At least to me.

      I once worked for a man who blocked time as A, B or C time. “A” time was normal business hours, say 8 to 5 PM, when you’d hustle like everyone else. “B” time was before 8 AM and after 5 PM, when you’d catch opportunities at the edges. “C” time, to him, was where you would become “successful”. It was the weekends and late weeknight time that normal, balanced people spent time with their families, or exercising, going to church or engaging in meaningful, non-work activity. For him “C” time was when you leapt past your competition and did the extra work needed to win. He fired me when I chose to go on a family vacation instead of working. He was summarily dismissed several months later when the rest of the world realized they despised him. I feel a little sorry for him.

      Which of us was wrong in how we choose to spend our time? It depends on what you prioritize in your own life. I don’t prioritize my career over my family, but do the best I can with the time I spend in it. I’ve had a decent career despite my egregious use of B and C time. Go figure. I rarely think about the guy I worked for anymore, but he taught me an important lesson at a crossroads in my career ten years ago: Life is too short to work for assholes.

      Last night as I was evaluating my time spent during the day, I thought to myself that half the weekend was gone and what had I really accomplished? My answer; I’d spent my time well, in the company of people I wanted to be with. A worthwhile investment of precious time. Will my choice enable me to squash my competition? Get promoted? Make more money? Ultimately I’m richer for having spent the time of other pursuits. I’ve learned not to focus on what other people do with their time, even when I don’t understand it. Sometimes this actually works.

      As we approach Thanksgiving in the United States, it once again presents an opportunity to spend precious time. Four-day weekends in this country are rare indeed. So with this much time, how to spend it? Use the time for a trip to a faraway place? Use it for chasing sales at stores desperate to separate you from your money? Binge watch a Netflix series? Sequester yourself away from others in your happy place? Or maybe spend that time with people you don’t see enough? I know what I’ve chosen, and anticipate a wonderful time.